Currently, China's overall liquidity is still very relaxed, but the distribution pattern of mobility has changed greatly: the financial system is facing liquidity tight. open up and broaden the financial sector liquidity flow channels to the real sector should focus on the future regulation of liquidity.
established economic recovery, China earlier launched the In fact, the monetary policy tightening cycle began for the first time raised the deposit reserve ratio will be in February this year, down money and credit data as a monetary tightening cycle began, but the tightening of liquidity cycle does not seem to gradually taken shape. On the whole, current flow pattern is still holding an overall relaxed.
This is because the credit in 2009 led a strong currency environment has undergone profound changes. similar to 2007, the central bank to act as a passive base money injected a new source of liquidity. 1 quarter of 2010, 15 trillion balance of base money, the new 300 billion yuan, it seems slow, it is not. taking into account the balance of base money over the years added the first quarter of the scale are very limited, even negative growth, the new still a considerable increase in size, from an increase of this trend can be seen, such as the balance of this year, a quarter of the monetary base increased by 20.7%, compared with 2009 increased by 14.1% in Q4 to have a more significant increase.
However, although Liquidity does not change the overall pattern of loose, but the distribution patterns of mobility are significant changes taking place. This is mainly reflected in the following three aspects.
First, liquidity in the financial system facing a In fact, from one year and one-year deposit interest rate the central counting the difference between the yield to maturity analysis of interest rate expectations largely narrowed the interest rate - the difference between yields, the recent steep drop occurs between the two has fully reflected the began to emerge within the banking system the status of a shortage of funds. particularly since April, the inter-bank lending market repurchases and the average monthly trading volume was gradually enlarged trend, rising repo rate, the overnight repo rate demand deposits with commercial banks, the cost of capital The difference is also expanding, which indicates that funds are tight signal.
Second, the liquidity of capital markets of differentiation. This year, China's stock market performed poorly in recent housing market is facing considerable adjustment pressures. This contrast prone to escape the confusion of liquidity. it is not. This is because, first, the stock market hedge the market expansion of liquidity is more relaxed pattern; Second, the stock index futures products, the introduction of financial innovations, to divert some of the liquid; Third, gold funds as a new reservoir. For example, since April, the Shanghai Composite Index continued to decline occurred, but the Shanghai gold futures rose over the same period was as high as 6.53%.
Third, enterprises are relatively tight liquidity needs. Since 2010, business loan demand. a quarter of the People's Bank survey shows that bankers, loan demand climate index from the fourth quarter of 2009 significantly increased to 67% in the first quarter of 2010 to 69%. This is loan interest rates from financial institutions .3 trend is reflected in the month, non-financial enterprises and other departments to implement the general lending interest rate to float downward, and the proportion was 30.05% and 28.91%, respectively, compared with the beginning down 3.14 and 1.35 percentage points; the implementation of floating interest rate loans accounted for 41.04%, up 4.49 percentage points over the beginning.
data show that in April non-financial companies and other sectors of loans increased by 448.2 billion yuan, deposits of non-financial companies increased 823.5 billion yuan. This situation shows that a , the loans did not keep up with rising demand for loans, the money multiplier increases, deposits derived capacity enhancement. On the other hand, the real corporate credit demand, tight credit, the enterprise has been through internal financing, private financing, trust banking and foreign exchange accounted for channels of financial intermediation and other models. For example, a quarter of new financial institutions, foreign exchange up to 747.8 billion yuan, April incremental or foreign exchange will be higher than the monthly average of the first quarter.
above analysis shows that while Overall ample liquidity, but the liquidity of banks and enterprises are not well-off, the liquidity of capital markets also appeared divided. This structure paradox highlights the plight of central bank liquidity regulation. because regulation of the central bank's liquidity is necessary to take into account global environment, external factors, pressure and fragile economic recovery. target the more the more difficult to grasp just the right scale.
, of course, discretionary tools are still single. limited to the constraints of various factors, low interest rate policy by the United States anchoring effect, although the increase the pace of exploratory interest or earlier, but we still caution that this policy tool. Meanwhile, the exchange rate adjustment is not expected before the price formation mechanism and the corresponding reform, open market operations and reserve ratio policy or will become the norm tool, but the impact on the real economy are more indirect and weak.
but can not be ignored is that type of external input flow pattern of the base currency, making the situation even more complicated, leading to lower control accuracy will also appear. sharp increase in the pressure of monetary policy conditions, to consider other macro-and micro-economic policy mix, open up and broaden the liquidity of the financial sector to channel the flow of the real sector, such as the stimulation of SMEs active in the credit markets, support new industries, open up monopolies control, perhaps more pressing now.
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